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1 < \section{Overview and Analysis Strategy}
1 > \section{Overview and Strategy for Background Determination}
2   \label{sec:overview}
3  
4 [REVISE --- MAKE SURE EVERYTHING IS CORRECT]
5
4   We are searching for a $t\bar{t}\chi^0\chi^0$ or $W b W \bar{b} \chi^0 \chi^0$ final state
5   (after top decay in the first mode, the final states are actually the same).  So to first order
6   this is ``$t\bar{t} +$ extra \met''.  
7  
8   We work in the $\ell +$ jets final state, where the main background is $t\bar{t}$.  We look for
9   \met\ inconsistent with $W \to \ell \nu$.  We do this by concentrating on the $\ell \nu$ transverse
10 < mass ($M_T$), since except for resolution effects, $M_T < M_W$ for $W \to \ell \nu$.  Thus, the
10 > mass ($M_T$), since except for resolution and W-off-shell effects, $M_T < M_W$ for $W \to \ell \nu$.  Thus, the
11   initial analysis is simply a counting experiment in the tail of the $M_T$ distribution.  
12  
13   The event selection is one-and-only-one high \pt\ isolated lepton, four or more jets, and
14 < some moderate \met\ cut.  At least one of the jets has to be btagged to reduce $W+$ jets.
14 > an \met\ cut.  At least one of the jets has to be btagged to reduce $W+$ jets.
15   The event sample is then dominated by $t\bar{t}$, but there are also contributions from $W+$ jets,
16 < single top, dibosons, etc.
16 > single top, dibosons, as well as rare SM processes such as $ttW$.
17  
18 < In order to be sensitive to $\widetilde{t}\widetilde{t}$ production, the background in the $M_T$
19 < tail has to be controlled at the level of 10\% or better. So this is (almost) a precision measurement.
18 > % In order to be sensitive to $\widetilde{t}\widetilde{t}$ production, the background in the $M_T$
19 > % tail has to be controlled at the level of 10\% or better. So this is (almost) a precision measurement.
20  
21   The $t\bar{t}$ events in the $M_T$ tail can be broken up into two categories:
22   (i) $t\bar{t} \to \ell $+ jets and (ii) $t\bar{t} \to \ell^+ \ell^-$ where one of the two
23   leptons is not found by the second-lepton-veto (here the second lepton can be a hadronically
24   decaying $\tau$).
25 < For a reasonable $M_T$ cut, say $M_T >$ 150 GeV, the dilepton background is of order 80\% of
25 > For a reasonable $M_T$ cut, say $M_T >$ 150 GeV, the dilepton background is approximately 80\% of
26   the total.  This is because in dileptons there are two neutrinos from $W$ decay, thus $M_T$
27   is not bounded by $M_W$.  This is a very important point: while it is true that we are looking in
28   the tail of $M_T$, the bulk of the background events end up there not because of some exotic
29   \met\ reconstruction failure, but because of well understood physics processes.  This means that
30 < the background estimate can be taken from Monte Carlo (MC), after carefully accounting for possible
31 < data/MC differences.  Sophisticated fully ``data driven'' techniques are not really needed.
30 > the background estimate can be taken from Monte Carlo (MC)
31 > after carefully accounting for possible
32 > data/MC differences.  
33 >
34 > The search is performed in a number of Signal Regions (SRs) defined
35 > by minimum requirements on \met\  and $M_T$.  The SRs
36 > are defined in Section~\ref{sec:SR}.
37 >
38 > In Section~\ref{sec:CR} we will describe the analysis of various Control Regions
39 > (CRs)  that are used to test the Monte Carlo model and, if necessary,
40 > to extract data/MC scale factors.  In this section we give a
41 > general description of the procedure.  The details of how the
42 > final background prediction is assembled are given in Section~\ref{sec:bkg_pred}.
43 >
44  
45 < Another important point is that in order to minimize systematic uncertainties, the MC background
46 < predictions are always normalized to the bulk of the $t\bar{t}$ data, ie, events passing all of the
45 >
46 > % Sophisticated fully ``data driven'' techniques are not really needed.
47 >
48 > One general point is that in order to minimize systematic uncertainties, the MC background
49 > predictions are whenever possible normalized to the bulk of the $t\bar{t}$ data, ie, events passing all of the
50   requirements but with $M_T \approx 80$ GeV.
51 < This removes uncertainties
51 > This (mostly) removes uncertainties
52   due to $\sigma(t\bar{t})$, lepton ID, trigger efficiency, luminosity, etc.  
53  
54 < The $\ell +$ jets background, which is dominated by
55 < $t\bar{t} \to \ell $+ jets, but also includes some $W +$ jets as well as single top,
56 < is estimated as follows:
57 < \begin{enumerate}
58 < \item We select a control sample of events passing all cuts, but anti-btagged, i.e. b-vetoed.  This
59 < sample is now dominated by $W +$ jets.  The sample is used to understand the
60 < $M_T$ tail in $\ell +$ jets processes.
61 < \item In MC we measure the ratio of the number of $\ell +$ jets events in the $M_T$ tail to
62 < the number of events with $M_T \approx$ 80 GeV.  This ratio turns out to be pretty much the
63 < same for all sources of $\ell +$ jets.
64 < \item In data we measure the same ratio but after correcting for the $t\bar{t} \to$ dilepton
65 < contribution, as well as dibosons etc.  The dilepton contribution is taken from MC after
66 < the correction described below.  
67 < \item We compare the two ratios, as well as the shapes of the data and MC $M_T$ distributions.
68 < If they do not agree, we try to figure out why and fix it.  If they agree well enough, we define a
69 < data-to-MC scale factor (SF) which is the ratio of the  ratios defined in step 2 and 3, keeping track of the
70 < uncertainty.  
71 < \item We next perform the full selection in $t\bar{t} \to \ell +$ jets MC, and measure this ratio
72 < again (which should be the same as that in step 2).
60 < \item
61 < We perform the full selection in data. We count the number of events with $M_T \approx 80$ GeV, after subtracting off the dilepton contribution,
62 <  and multiply this count by the ratio from step 5 times the data/MC scale factor from step 4.
63 < %We count the events with $M_T \approx 80$ GeV, we
64 < %subtract off the dilepton contribution, we multiply the subtracted event count by the ratio from step 5 (or from
65 < %step 2), and also by the data/MC SF from step 4.  
66 < The result is the prediction for the $\ell +$ jets BG in the $M_T$ tail.
67 < \end{enumerate}
54 > \subsection{$\ell +$ jets background}
55 > \label{sec:ljbg-general}
56 >
57 > The $\ell +$ jets background is dominated by
58 > $t\bar{t} \to \ell $+ jets, but also includes some $W +$ jets as well as single top.
59 > The MC input used in the background estimation
60 > is the ratio of the number of events with $M_T$ in the signal region
61 > to the number of events with $M_T \approx 80$ GeV.
62 > This ratio is (possibly) corrected by a data/MC scale factor obtained
63 > from a study of CRs, as outlined below.
64 >
65 > Note that the ratio described above is actually different for
66 > $t\bar{t}$/single top and $W +$ jets.  This is because in $W$ events
67 > there is a significant contribution to the $M_T$ tail from very off-shell
68 > $W$.
69 > This contribution is much smaller in top events because $M(\ell \nu)$
70 > cannot excees $M_{top}-M_b$. Therefore the large \mt\ tail in
71 > $t\bar{t}$/single top is dominated by jet resolution effects,
72 > while for \wjets\ events the large \mt\ tail is dominated by off-shell W production.
73  
69 Steps 1-4 above are all measurements on the b-vetoed samples in data and/or MC. Steps 5 and 6 are performed on the b-tagged sample.
74  
75 < To suppress dilepton backgrounds, we veto events with an isolated track of \pt $>$ 10 GeV.
75 >
76 > For $W +$ jets the ability of the Monte Carlo to model this ratio
77 > ($R_{wjet}$) is tested in a sample of $\ell +$ jets enriched in
78 > $W +$ jets by the application of a b-veto.
79 > The equivalent ratio for top events ($R_{top}$) is validated in a sample of well
80 > identified $Z \to \ell \ell$ with one lepton added to the \met\
81 > calculation.
82 > This sample is well suited to testing the resolution effects on
83 > the $M_T$ tail, since off-shell effects are eliminated by the $Z$-mass
84 > requirement.
85 >
86 > Note that the fact that the ratios are different for
87 > $t\bar{t}$/single top and $W +$ jets introduces a systematic
88 > uncertainty in the background calculation because one needs
89 > to know the relative fractions of these two components in
90 > $M_T \approx 80$ GeV lepton $+$ jets sample.
91 >
92 >
93 > \subsection{Dilepton background}
94 > \label{sec:dil-general}
95 >
96 > To suppress dilepton backgrounds, we veto events with an isolated track of \pt $>$ 10 GeV (see Sec.~\ref{sec:tkveto} for details).
97   Being the common feature for electron, muon, and one-prong
98   tau decays, this veto is highly efficient for rejecting
99   $t\bar{t}$ to dilepton events. The remaining dilepton background can be classified into the following categories:
# Line 95 | Line 120 | $t\bar{t}$ to dilepton events. The remai
120   %Monte Carlo studies indicate that there is no dominant contribution: it is ``a little bit of this,
121   %and a little bit of that''.
122  
123 < The last category includes 3-prong tau decays as well as electrons and muons from W decay that fail the isolation requirement.
124 < Monte Carlo studies indicate that these three components populate the $M_T$ tail in the proportions of roughly  6\%, 47\%, 47\%.
123 > The last category includes 1-prong and 3-prong hadronic tau decays, as well as electrons and muons either from direct W decay or via W$\to\tau\to\ell$ decay
124 > that fail the isolation requirement.
125 > % HOOBERMAN: commenting out for now
126 > %Monte Carlo studies indicate that these three components populate the $M_T$ tail in the proportions of roughly  6\%, 47\%, 47\%.
127   We note that at present we do not attempt to veto 3-prong tau decays as they are only 16\% of the total dilepton background according to the MC.
128  
129   The high $M_T$ dilepton backgrounds come from MC, but their rate is normalized to the
130 < $M_T \approx 80$ GeV peak.  In order to perform this normalization in data, the $W +$ jets
131 < events in the $M_T$ peak have to be subtracted off.  This introduces a systematic uncertainty.
130 > $M_T \approx 80$ GeV peak.  In order to perform this normalization in
131 > data, the non-$t\bar{t}$ (eg, $W +$ jets)
132 > events in the $M_T$ peak have to be subtracted off.  This also introduces a systematic uncertainty.
133  
134   There are two types of effects that can influence the MC dilepton prediction: physics effects
135   and instrumental effects.  We discuss these next, starting from physics.
# Line 128 | Line 156 | uncertainty associated with the $t\bar{t
156  
157   The main instrumental effect is associated with the efficiency of the isolated track veto.
158   We use tag-and-probe to compare the isolated track veto performance in $Z + 4$ jet data and
159 < MC, and we extract corrections if necessary.  Note that the performance of the isolated track veto
159 > MC.  Note that the performance of the isolated track veto
160   is not exactly the same on $e/\mu$ and on one prong hadronic tau decays.  This is because
161   the pions from one-prong taus are often accompanied by $\pi^0$'s that can then result in extra
162 < tracks due to phton conversions.  We let the simulation take care of that.  
162 > tracks due to photon conversions.  We let the simulation take care of that.  
163   Note that JES uncertainties are effectively ``calibrated away'' by the $N_{jet}$ rescaling described above.  
164  
165   %Similarly, at the moment
# Line 141 | Line 169 | Note that JES uncertainties are effectiv
169   %The sample of events failing the last isolated track veto is an important control sample to
170   %check that we are doing the right thing.
171  
172 + \subsection{Other backgrounds}
173 + \label{sec:other-general}
174 + Other backgrounds are $tW$, $ttV$, dibosons, tribosons, Drell Yan.
175 + These  are small.  They are taken from MC with appropriate scale
176 + factors for trigger efficiency, and reweighting to match the distribution of reconstructed primary vertices in data.
177 +
178 +
179 + \subsection{Future improvements}
180 + \label{sec:improvements-general}
181   Finally, there are possible improvements to this basic analysis strategy that can be added in the future:
182   \begin{itemize}
183   \item Move from counting experiment to shape analysis.  But first, we need to get the counting

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