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1   %\section{Systematics Uncertainties on the Background Prediction}
2   %\label{sec:systematics}
3  
4 [DESCRIBE HERE ONE BY ONE THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT ARE PRESENT IN THE SPREADSHHET
5 FROM WHICH WE CALCULATE THE TOTAL UNCERTAINTY. WE KNOW HOW TO DO THIS
6 AND
7 WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY FROM THE 7 TEV ANALYSIS TO PROPAGATE ALL
8 UNCERTAINTIES
9 CORRECTLY THROUGH.  WE WILL DO IT ONCE WE HAVE SETTLED ON THE
10 INDIVIDUAL PIECES WHICH ARE STILL IN FLUX]
11
4   In this Section we discuss the systematic uncertainty on the BG
5   prediction.  This prediction is assembled from the event
6   counts in the peak region of the transverse mass distribution as
# Line 22 | Line 14 | The calculation is done for each signal
14   region,
15   for electrons and muons separately.
16  
17 < The choice to normalizing to the peak region of $M_T$ has the
17 > The choice to normalize to the peak region of $M_T$ has the
18   advantage that some uncertainties, e.g., luminosity, cancel.
19   It does however introduce complications because it couples
20   some of the uncertainties in non-trivial ways.  For example,
# Line 33 | Line 25 | for example,
25   the $t\bar{t} \to$ dilepton BG estimate because it changes the
26   $t\bar{t}$ normalization to the peak region (because some of the
27   events in the peak region are from rare processes).  These effects
28 < are carefully accounted for.  The contribution to the overall
29 < uncertainty from each BG source is tabulated in
28 > are carefully accounted for. The contribution to the overall
29 > uncertainty from each background source is tabulated in
30   Section~\ref{sec:bgunc-bottomline}.
31 < First, however, we discuss the uncertainties one-by-one and we comment
31 > Here we discuss the uncertainties one-by-one and comment
32   on their impact on the overall result, at least to first order.
33   Second order effects, such as the one described, are also included.
34  
35   \subsection{Statistical uncertainties on the event counts in the $M_T$
36   peak regions}
37 < These vary between XX and XX \%, depending on the signal region
37 > These vary between 2\% and 20\%, depending on the signal region
38   (different
39   signal regions have different \met\ requirements, thus they also have
40 < different $M_T$ regions used as control.
40 > different $M_T$ regions used as control).
41   Since
42 < the major BG, eg, $t\bar{t}$ are normalized to the peak regions, this
42 > the major backgrounds, eg, $t\bar{t}$ are normalized to the peak regions, this
43   fractional uncertainty is pretty much carried through all the way to
44   the end.  There is also an uncertainty from the finite MC event counts
45   in the $M_T$ peak regions.  This is also included, but it is smaller.
46  
47 + Normalizing to the $M_T$ peak has the distinct advantages that
48 + uncertainties on luminosity, cross-sections, trigger efficiency,
49 + lepton ID, cancel out.
50 + For the low statistics regions with high \met\ requirements, the
51 + price to pay in terms of event count is that statistical uncertainties start
52 + to become significant.  In the future we may consider a different
53 + normalization startegy in the low statistics regions.
54 +
55   \subsection{Uncertainty from the choice of $M_T$ peak region}
56 IN 7 TEV DATA WE HAD SOME SHAPE DIFFERENCES IN THE MTRANS REGION THAT
57 LED US TO CONSERVATIVELY INCLUDE THIS UNCERTAINTY.  WE NEED TO LOOK
58 INTO THIS AGAIN
56  
57 < \subsection{Uncertainty on the Wjets cross-section and the rare MC cross-sections}
57 > This choice affects the scale factors of Table~\ref{tab:mtpeaksf}.  
58 > If the $M_T$ peak region is not well modelled, this would introduce an
59 > uncertainty.
60 >
61 > We have tested this possibility by recalculating the post-veto scale factors for a different
62 > choice
63 > of $M_T$ peak region ($40 < M_T < 100$ GeV instead of the default
64 > $50 < M_T < 80$ GeV).  This is shown in Table~\ref{tab:mtpeaksf2}.  
65 > The two results for the scale factors are very compatible.
66 > We do not take any systematic uncertainty for this possible effect.
67 >
68 > \begin{table}[!h]
69 > \begin{center}
70 > {\footnotesize
71 > \begin{tabular}{l||c|c|c|c|c|c|c}
72 > \hline
73 > Sample              & SRA & SRB & SRC & SRD & SRE & SRF & SRG\\
74 > \hline
75 > \hline
76 > \multicolumn{8}{c}{$50 \leq \mt \leq 80$} \\
77 > \hline
78 > $\mu$ pre-veto \mt-SF      & $1.02 \pm 0.02$ & $0.95 \pm 0.03$ & $0.90 \pm 0.05$ & $0.98 \pm 0.08$ & $0.97 \pm 0.13$ & $0.85 \pm 0.18$ & $0.92 \pm 0.31$ \\
79 > $\mu$ post-veto \mt-SF     & $1.00 \pm 0.02$ & $0.95 \pm 0.03$ & $0.91 \pm 0.05$ & $1.00 \pm 0.09$ & $0.99 \pm 0.13$ & $0.85 \pm 0.18$ & $0.96 \pm 0.31$ \\
80 > \hline
81 > $\mu$ veto \mt-SF          & $0.98 \pm 0.01$ & $0.99 \pm 0.01$ & $1.01 \pm 0.02$ & $1.02 \pm 0.04$ & $1.02 \pm 0.06$ & $1.00 \pm 0.09$ & $1.04 \pm 0.11$ \\
82 > \hline
83 > \hline
84 > e pre-veto \mt-SF          & $0.95 \pm 0.02$ & $0.95 \pm 0.03$ & $0.94 \pm 0.06$ & $0.85 \pm 0.09$ & $0.84 \pm 0.13$ & $1.05 \pm 0.23$ & $1.04 \pm 0.33$ \\
85 > e post-veto \mt-SF         & $0.92 \pm 0.02$ & $0.91 \pm 0.03$ & $0.91 \pm 0.06$ & $0.74 \pm 0.08$ & $0.75 \pm 0.13$ & $0.91 \pm 0.22$ & $1.01 \pm 0.33$ \\
86 > \hline
87 > e veto \mt-SF      & $0.97 \pm 0.01$ & $0.96 \pm 0.02$ & $0.97 \pm 0.03$ & $0.87 \pm 0.05$ & $0.89 \pm 0.08$ & $0.86 \pm 0.11$ & $0.97 \pm 0.14$ \\
88 > \hline
89 > \hline
90 > \multicolumn{8}{c}{$40 \leq \mt \leq 100$} \\
91 > \hline
92 > $\mu$ pre-veto \mt-SF      & $1.02 \pm 0.01$ & $0.97 \pm 0.02$ & $0.91 \pm 0.05$ & $0.95 \pm 0.06$ & $0.97 \pm 0.10$ & $0.80 \pm 0.14$ & $0.74 \pm 0.22$ \\
93 > $\mu$ post-veto \mt-SF     & $1.00 \pm 0.01$ & $0.96 \pm 0.02$ & $0.90 \pm 0.04$ & $0.98 \pm 0.07$ & $1.00 \pm 0.11$ & $0.80 \pm 0.15$ & $0.81 \pm 0.24$ \\
94 > \hline
95 > $\mu$ veto \mt-SF          & $0.98 \pm 0.01$ & $0.99 \pm 0.01$ & $0.99 \pm 0.02$ & $1.03 \pm 0.03$ & $1.03 \pm 0.05$ & $1.01 \pm 0.08$ & $1.09 \pm 0.09$ \\
96 > \hline
97 > \hline
98 > e pre-veto \mt-SF          & $0.97 \pm 0.01$ & $0.93 \pm 0.02$ & $0.94 \pm 0.04$ & $0.81 \pm 0.06$ & $0.86 \pm 0.10$ & $0.95 \pm 0.17$ & $1.06 \pm 0.26$ \\
99 > e post-veto \mt-SF         & $0.94 \pm 0.01$ & $0.91 \pm 0.02$ & $0.91 \pm 0.04$ & $0.71 \pm 0.06$ & $0.82 \pm 0.10$ & $0.93 \pm 0.17$ & $1.09 \pm 0.27$ \\
100 > \hline
101 > e veto \mt-SF      & $0.97 \pm 0.01$ & $0.98 \pm 0.01$ & $0.97 \pm 0.02$ & $0.88 \pm 0.04$ & $0.95 \pm 0.06$ & $0.98 \pm 0.08$ & $1.03 \pm 0.09$ \\
102 > \hline
103 > \end{tabular}}
104 > \caption{ \mt\ peak Data/MC scale factors. The pre-veto SFs are applied to the
105 >  \ttdl\ sample, while the post-veto SFs are applied to the single
106 >  lepton samples. The veto SF is shown for comparison across channels.
107 >  The raw MC is used for backgrounds from rare processes.
108 >  The uncertainties are statistical only.
109 > \label{tab:mtpeaksf2}}
110 > \end{center}
111 > \end{table}
112 >
113 >
114 > \subsection{Uncertainty on the \wjets\ cross-section and the rare MC cross-sections}
115   These are taken as 50\%, uncorrelated.  
116   The primary effect is to introduce a 50\%
117   uncertainty
# Line 71 | Line 125 | attributed to $t\bar{t}$ goes down, and
125   scaled to the number of $t\bar{t}$ events in the peak, the $t\bar{t}$
126   BG goes down.  
127  
128 < \subsection{Scale factors for the tail-to-peak ratios for lepton +
128 > \subsection{Tail-to-peak ratios for lepton +
129    jets top and W events}
130 < These tail-to-peak ratios are described in Section~\ref{sec:ttp}.
131 < They are studied in CR1 and CR2.  The studies are described
132 < in Sections~\ref{sec:cr1} and~\ref{sec:cr2}), respectively, where
133 < we also give the uncertainty on the scale factors.
130 > The tail-to-peak ratios $R_{top}$ and $R_{wjet}$ are described in Section~\ref{sec:ttp}.
131 > The data/MC scale factors are studied in CR1 and CR2 (Sections~\ref{sec:cr1} and~\ref{sec:cr2}).
132 > Only the scale factor for \wjets, $SFR_{wjet}$, is used, and its
133 > uncertainty is given in Table~\ref{tab:cr1yields}.
134 > This uncertainty affects both $R_{wjet}$ and $R_{top}$.
135 > The additional systematic uncertainty on $R_{top}$ from the variation between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios is given in Section~\ref{sec:ttp}.
136 >
137  
138   \subsection{Uncertainty on extra jet radiation for dilepton
139    background}
# Line 84 | Line 141 | As discussed in Section~\ref{sec:jetmult
141   jet distribution in
142   $t\bar{t} \to$
143   dilepton MC is rescaled by the factors $K_3$ and $K_4$ to make
144 < it agree with the data.  The XX\% uncertainties on $K_3$ and $K_4$
144 > it agree with the data.  The 3\% uncertainties on $K_3$ and $K_4$
145   comes from data/MC statistics.  This  
146 < result directly in a XX\% uncertainty on the dilepton BG, which is by far
146 > results directly in a 3\% uncertainty on the dilepton background, which is by far
147   the most important one.
148  
149 + \subsection{Uncertainty from MC statistics}
150 + This affects mostly the \ttll\ background estimate, which is taken
151 + from
152 + Monte Carlo with appropriate correction factors.  This uncertainty
153 + is negligible in the low \met\ signal regions, and grows to about
154 + 15\% in SRG.
155  
93 \subsection{Uncertainty on the \ttll\ Acceptance}
156  
157 + \subsection{Uncertainty on the \ttll\ Background}
158 + \label{sec:ttdilbkgunc}
159   The \ttbar\ background prediction is obtained from MC, with corrections
160   derived from control samples in data. The uncertainty associated with
161 < the theoretical modeling of the \ttbar\ production and decay is
162 < estimated by comparing the background predictions obtained using
161 > the \ttbar\ background is derived from the level of closure of the
162 > background prediction in CR4 (Table~\ref{tab:cr4yields}) and
163 > CR5 (Table~\ref{tab:cr5yields}). The results from these control region
164 > checks are shown in Figure~\ref{fig:ttdlunc}. The uncertainties assigned
165 > to the \ttdl\ background prediction based on these tests are
166 > 5\% (SRA), 10\% (SRB), 15\% (SRC), 25\% (SRD), 40\% (SRE-G).
167 >
168 > \begin{figure}[hbt]
169 >  \begin{center}
170 >        \includegraphics[width=0.6\linewidth]{plots/ttdilepton_uncertainty.pdf}
171 >        \caption{
172 >          \label{fig:ttdlunc}%\protect
173 >          Results of the comparison of yields in the \mt\ tail comparing the MC prediction (after
174 >          applying SFs) to data for CR4 and CR5 for all the signal
175 >          region requirements considered (A-G). The bands indicate the
176 >          systematic uncertainties assigned based on these tests,
177 >          ranging from $5\%$ for SRA to $40\%$ for SRE-G.}
178 >      \end{center}
179 > \end{figure}
180 >
181 > \clearpage
182 > \subsubsection{Check of the impact of Signal Contamination}
183 >
184 > We examine the contribution of possible signal events in the \ttll\
185 > control regions (CR4 and CR5). It should be emphasized that these
186 > regions are not used to apply data/MC SFs. They are used to quantify
187 > the level of data/MC agreement and assign a corresponding uncertainty.
188 >
189 > To illustrate how much signal is expected to populate these control
190 > regions, we examine signal points near the edge of the analysis'
191 > sensitivity (m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0 for T2tt, m(stop) = 450
192 > m($\chi^0$) = 0 for T2bw with x=0.75 and m(stop) = 350
193 > m($\chi^0$) = 0 for T2bw with x=0.5).
194 > Table~\ref{tab:signalcontamination} compares the expected signal
195 > yields and the raw total MC background prediction in the control
196 > regions with the \met\ and \mt\ requirements corresponding to SRB, SRC
197 > and SRD (these are the signal regions that dominate the
198 > sensitivity). The signal contamination is smaller than the uncertainty
199 > on the dilepton background and smaller than the signal/background in
200 > the signal regions, with the exception of the T2bw scenario with x=0.5.
201 > However, based on the fact that the CR4 and CR5 are not used to extract
202 > data/MC SFs and that CR4 shows a slight deficit of data compared to
203 > the MC prediction, indicating that we do not observe evidence of
204 > signal contamination, we do not assign an additional uncertainty.
205 >
206 > \begin{table}[!h]
207 > \begin{center}
208 > {\small
209 > \begin{tabular}{l l||c|c|c}
210 > \hline
211 > \multicolumn{2}{c||}{Sample}              & CR B & CR C & CR D \\
212 > \hline
213 > \hline
214 > \multirow{4}{*}{CR4} & Raw MC            & $168.2 \pm 4.5$& $51.5 \pm 2.5$& $19.6 \pm 1.5$ \\
215 > %\hline
216 > & T2tt m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0  & $2.6 \pm 0.3$ $(2\%)$ & $2.0 \pm 0.2$ $(4\%)$ & $1.4 \pm 0.2$ $(7\%)$ \\
217 > & T2bw x=0.75 m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0 & $10.5 \pm 0.4$ $(6\%)$ &$6.1 \pm 0.3$ $(12\%)$ & $3.1 \pm 0.2$ $(16\%)$ \\
218 > & T2bw x=0.5  m(stop) = 350 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $32.1 \pm 1.5$ $(19\%)$ & $14.7 \pm 1.0$ $(29\%)$ & $5.5 \pm 0.6$ $(28\%)$ \\
219 > \hline
220 > \hline
221 > \multirow{4}{*}{CR5} & Raw MC            & $306.5 \pm 6.2$& $101.8 \pm 3.6$& $38.0 \pm 2.2$ \\
222 > %\hline
223 > & T2tt m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0  & $10.6 \pm 0.6$ $(3\%)$ & $7.8 \pm 0.5$ $(8\%)$ & $5.4 \pm 0.4$ $(14\%)$ \\
224 > & T2bw x=0.75 m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0 & $17.3 \pm 0.5$ $(6\%)$ &$11.3 \pm 0.4$ $(11\%)$ & $6.2 \pm 0.3$ $(16\%)$\\
225 > & T2bw x=0.5  m(stop) = 350 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $33.0 \pm 1.5$ $(11\%)$& $14.4 \pm 1.0$ $(14\%)$& $5.7 \pm 0.6$ $(15\%)$ \\
226 > \hline
227 > \hline
228 > \hline
229 > \multirow{4}{*}{SIGNAL} & Raw MC                 & $486.3 \pm 7.8$& $164.3 \pm 4.5$& $61.5 \pm 2.8$ \\
230 > & T2tt m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0    & $65.3 \pm 1.4$ $(13\%)$& $48.8 \pm 1.2$ $(30\%)$& $32.9 \pm 1.0$ $(53\%)$ \\
231 > & T2bw x=0.75 m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $69.3 \pm 1.0$ $(14\%)$& $47.3 \pm 0.8$ $(29\%)$& $27.3 \pm 0.6$ $(44\%)$ \\
232 > & T2bw x=0.5  m(stop) = 350 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $105.5 \pm 2.8$ $(22\%)$& $44.6 \pm 1.8$ $(27\%)$& $15.9 \pm 1.1$ $(26\%)$ \\
233 > \hline
234 > \end{tabular}}
235 > \caption{ Yields in \mt\ tail comparing the raw SM MC prediction to the
236 >  yields for a few signal points on the edge of our sensitivity in the \ttll\
237 >  control regions CR4, CR5 and in the corresponding signal region.
238 >  The numbers in parenthesis are the expected signal yield divided by
239 >  the total background. The uncertainties are statistical only.
240 > \label{tab:signalcontamination}}
241 > \end{center}
242 > \end{table}
243 >
244 > %CR5 DUMP
245 > %Total           & $880.3 \pm 10.4$& $560.0 \pm 8.3$& $306.5 \pm 6.2$& $101.8 \pm 3.6$& $38.0 \pm 2.2$& $16.4 \pm 1.4$& $8.2 \pm 1.0$& $4.6 \pm 0.8$ \\
246 > %\hline
247 > %\hline
248 > %Data            & $941$& $559$& $287$& $95$& $26$& $8$& $5$& $3$ \\
249 > %\hline
250 > %T2tt m(stop) = 250 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $84.3 \pm 9.2$& $61.9 \pm 7.9$& $35.7 \pm 6.0$& $5.9 \pm 2.4$& $1.0 \pm 1.0$& $1.0 \pm 1.0$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$ \\
251 > %\hline
252 > %T2tt m(stop) = 300 m($\chi^0$) = 50    & $61.4 \pm 4.7$& $53.6 \pm 4.4$& $42.0 \pm 3.9$& $14.3 \pm 2.3$& $7.2 \pm 1.6$& $1.8 \pm 0.8$& $0.7 \pm 0.5$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$ \\
253 > %\hline
254 > %T2tt m(stop) = 300 m($\chi^0$) = 100   & $33.3 \pm 3.5$& $28.6 \pm 3.2$& $19.2 \pm 2.6$& $6.1 \pm 1.5$& $1.8 \pm 0.8$& $0.4 \pm 0.4$& $0.4 \pm 0.4$& $0.4 \pm 0.4$ \\
255 > %\hline
256 > %T2tt m(stop) = 350 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $33.4 \pm 2.2$& $29.8 \pm 2.1$& $27.3 \pm 2.0$& $15.3 \pm 1.5$& $5.6 \pm 0.9$& $1.9 \pm 0.5$& $0.3 \pm 0.2$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$ \\
257 > %\hline
258 > %T2tt m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $12.0 \pm 0.6$& $11.3 \pm 0.6$& $10.6 \pm 0.6$& $7.8 \pm 0.5$& $5.4 \pm 0.4$& $3.1 \pm 0.3$& $1.8 \pm 0.2$& $0.6 \pm 0.1$ \\
259 > %\hline
260 > %T2bw m(stop) = 350 x=0.5 m($\chi^0$) = 0       & $48.5 \pm 1.9$& $40.2 \pm 1.7$& $33.0 \pm 1.5$& $14.4 \pm 1.0$& $5.7 \pm 0.6$& $2.7 \pm 0.4$& $1.3 \pm 0.3$& $0.5 \pm 0.2$ \\
261 > %\hline
262 > %T2bw m(stop) = 450 x=0.75 m($\chi^0$) = 0      & $22.3 \pm 0.6$& $20.2 \pm 0.6$& $17.3 \pm 0.5$& $11.3 \pm 0.4$& $6.2 \pm 0.3$& $3.1 \pm 0.2$& $1.3 \pm 0.1$& $0.7 \pm 0.1$ \\
263 > %\hline
264 >
265 > %CR4 DUMP
266 > %\hline
267 > %Total           & $510.1 \pm 8.0$& $324.2 \pm 6.3$& $168.2 \pm 4.5$& $51.5 \pm 2.5$& $19.6 \pm 1.5$& $7.8 \pm 1.0$& $2.6 \pm 0.6$& $1.1 \pm 0.3$ \\
268 > %\hline
269 > %\hline
270 > %Data            & $462$& $289$& $169$& $45$& $10$& $7$& $5$& $3$ \\
271 > %\hline
272 > %T2tt m(stop) = 250 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $37.7 \pm 6.1$& $30.9 \pm 5.5$& $18.0 \pm 4.2$& $6.0 \pm 2.5$& $2.0 \pm 1.4$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$ \\
273 > %\hline
274 > %T2tt m(stop) = 300 m($\chi^0$) = 50    & $16.6 \pm 2.4$& $14.4 \pm 2.3$& $11.3 \pm 2.0$& $5.6 \pm 1.4$& $3.2 \pm 1.1$& $1.8 \pm 0.8$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$ \\
275 > %\hline
276 > %T2tt m(stop) = 300 m($\chi^0$) = 100   & $9.6 \pm 1.8$& $6.4 \pm 1.5$& $4.6 \pm 1.3$& $0.7 \pm 0.5$& $0.4 \pm 0.4$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$& $0.0 \pm 0.0$ \\
277 > %\hline
278 > %T2tt m(stop) = 350 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $8.2 \pm 1.1$& $7.6 \pm 1.0$& $5.7 \pm 0.9$& $3.4 \pm 0.7$& $1.9 \pm 0.5$& $0.6 \pm 0.3$& $0.3 \pm 0.2$& $0.1 \pm 0.1$ \\
279 > %\hline
280 > %T2tt m(stop) = 450 m($\chi^0$) = 0     & $3.1 \pm 0.3$& $2.9 \pm 0.3$& $2.6 \pm 0.3$& $2.0 \pm 0.2$& $1.4 \pm 0.2$& $1.0 \pm 0.2$& $0.4 \pm 0.1$& $0.2 \pm 0.1$ \\
281 > %\hline
282 > %T2bw m(stop) = 350 x=0.5 m($\chi^0$) = 0       & $52.6 \pm 1.9$& $42.6 \pm 1.7$& $32.1 \pm 1.5$& $14.7 \pm 1.0$& $5.5 \pm 0.6$& $1.9 \pm 0.4$& $0.6 \pm 0.2$& $0.3 \pm 0.1$ \\
283 > %\hline
284 > %T2bw m(stop) = 450 x=0.75 m($\chi^0$) = 0      & $16.9 \pm 0.5$& $14.9 \pm 0.5$& $10.5 \pm 0.4$& $6.1 \pm 0.3$& $3.1 \pm 0.2$& $1.5 \pm 0.1$& $0.6 \pm 0.1$& $0.3 \pm 0.1$ \\
285 > %\hline
286 >
287 >
288 > \subsubsection{Check of the uncertainty on the \ttll\ Background}
289 >
290 > We check that the systematic uncertainty assigned to the \ttll\ background prediction
291 > covers the uncertainty associated with
292 > the theoretical modeling of the \ttbar\ production and decay
293 > by comparing the background predictions obtained using
294   alternative MC samples. It should be noted that the full analysis is
295   performed with the alternative samples under consideration,
296   including the derivation of the various data-to-MC scale factors.
# Line 103 | Line 298 | The variations considered are
298  
299   \begin{itemize}
300   \item Top mass: The alternative values for the top mass differ
301 <  from the central value by $5~\GeV$: $m_{\mathrm{top}} = 178.5~\GeV$ and $m_{\mathrm{top}}
301 >  from the central value by $6~\GeV$: $m_{\mathrm{top}} = 178.5~\GeV$ and $m_{\mathrm{top}}
302    = 166.5~\GeV$.
303   \item Jet-parton matching scale: This corresponds to variations in the
304    scale at which the Matrix Element partons from Madgraph are matched
# Line 115 | Line 310 | The variations considered are
310    value for the scale used is $Q^2 = m_{\mathrm{top}}^2 +
311    \sum_{\mathrm{jets}} \pt^2$.
312   \item Alternative generators: Samples produced with different
313 <  generators include MC@NLO and Powheg (NLO generators) and
119 <  Pythia (LO). It may also be noted that MC@NLO uses Herwig6 for the
120 <  hadronisation, while POWHEG uses Pythia6.
313 >  generators, Powheg (our default) and Madgraph.
314   \item Modeling of taus: The alternative sample does not include
315    Tauola and is otherwise identical to the Powheg sample.
316    This effect was studied earlier using 7~TeV samples and found to be negligible.
317   \item The PDF uncertainty is estimated following the PDF4LHC
318 <  recommendations[CITE]. The events are reweighted using alternative
318 >  recommendations. The events are reweighted using alternative
319    PDF sets for CT10 and MSTW2008 and the uncertainties for each are derived using the
320 <  alternative eigenvector variations and the ``master equation''. In
321 <  addition, the NNPDF2.1 set with 100 replicas. The central value is
320 >  alternative eigenvector variations and the ``master equation''.
321 >  The NNPDF2.1 set with 100 replicas is also used. The central value is
322    determined from the mean and the uncertainty is derived from the
323    $1\sigma$ range. The overall uncertainty is derived from the envelope of the
324    alternative predictions and their uncertainties.
325    This effect was studied earlier using 7~TeV samples and found to be negligible.
326    \end{itemize}
327  
135
328   \begin{figure}[hbt]
329    \begin{center}
330 <        \includegraphics[width=0.8\linewidth]{plots/n_dl_syst_comp.png}
330 >        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/n_dl_comp_SRA.pdf}%
331 >        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/n_dl_comp_SRB.pdf}
332 >        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/n_dl_comp_SRC.pdf}%
333 >        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/n_dl_comp_SRD.pdf}
334 >        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/n_dl_comp_SRE.pdf}
335          \caption{
336 <          \label{fig:ttllsyst}%\protect
336 >          \label{fig:ttllsyst}\protect
337            Comparison of the \ttll\ central prediction with those using
338            alternative MC samples. The blue band corresponds to the
339            total statistical error for all data and MC samples. The
340            alternative sample predictions are indicated by the
341            datapoints. The uncertainties on the alternative predictions
342            correspond to the uncorrelated statistical uncertainty from
343 <          the size of the alternative sample only.
344 <        [TO BE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST SELECTION AND SFS]}
343 >          the size of the alternative sample only.  Note the
344 >          suppressed vertical scales.}
345        \end{center}
346      \end{figure}
347  
348 +
349 + \begin{table}[!h]
350 + \begin{center}
351 + {\footnotesize
352 + \begin{tabular}{l||c|c|c|c|c|c|c}
353 + \hline
354 + $\Delta/N$  [\%] & Madgraph & Mass Up & Mass Down & Scale Up & Scale Down &
355 + Match Up & Match Down \\
356 + \hline
357 + \hline
358 + SRA      & $2$ & $2$ & $5$ & $12$ & $7$ & $0$ & $2$  \\
359 + \hline
360 + SRB      & $6$ & $0$ & $6$ & $5$ & $12$ & $5$ & $6$  \\
361 + \hline
362 + % SRC    & $10$ & $3$ & $2$ & $12$ & $14$ & $16$ & $4$  \\
363 + % \hline
364 + % SRD    & $10$ & $6$ & $6$ & $21$ & $15$ & $19$ & $0$  \\
365 + % \hline
366 + % SRE    & $6$ & $17$ & $15$ & $2$ & $12$ & $17$ & $8$  \\
367 + \hline
368 + \end{tabular}}
369 + \caption{ Relative difference in \ttdl\ predictions for alternative MC
370 +  samples in
371 + the higher statistics regions SRA and SRB.  These differences
372 + are based on the central values of the predictions.  For a fuller
373 + picture
374 + of the situation, including statistical uncertainites, see Fig.~\ref{fig:ttllsyst}.
375 + \label{tab:fracdiff}}
376 + \end{center}
377 + \end{table}
378 +
379 +
380 + In Fig.~\ref{fig:ttllsyst} we compare the alternate MC \ttll\ background predictions
381 + for regions A through E.  We can make the following observations based
382 + on this Figure.
383 +
384 + \begin{itemize}
385 + \item In the tighter signal regions we are running out of
386 +  statistics.    
387 + \item Within the limited statistics, there is no evidence that the
388 +  situation changes as we go from signal region A to signal region E.
389 + %Therefore, we assess a systematic based on the relatively high
390 + %statistics
391 + %test in signal region A, and apply the same systematic uncertainty
392 + %to all other regions.
393 + \item In signal regions B and above, the uncertainties assigned in Section~\ref{sec:ttdilbkgunc}
394 + fully cover the alternative MC variations.
395 + \item In order to fully (as opposed as 1$\sigma$) cover the
396 + alternative MC variations in region A we would have to take a
397 + systematic
398 + uncertainty of $\approx 10\%$ instead of $5\%$.  This would be driven by the
399 + scale up/scale down variations, see Table~\ref{tab:fracdiff}.
400 + \end{itemize}
401 +
402 + \begin{table}[!ht]
403 + \begin{center}
404 + \begin{tabular}{l|c|c}
405 + \hline
406 +            Sample
407 +            &                K3   & K4\\
408 + \hline
409 + \hline
410 + Powheg     & $1.01 \pm 0.03$ & $0.93 \pm 0.04$ \\
411 + Madgraph  & $1.01 \pm 0.04$ & $0.92 \pm 0.04$ \\
412 + Mass Up    & $1.00 \pm 0.04$ & $0.92 \pm 0.04$ \\
413 + Mass Down    & $1.06 \pm 0.04$ & $0.99 \pm 0.05$ \\
414 + Scale Up    & $1.14 \pm 0.04$ & $1.23 \pm 0.06$ \\
415 + Scale Down    & $0.89 \pm 0.03$ & $0.74 \pm 0.03$ \\
416 + Match Up    & $1.02 \pm 0.04$ & $0.97 \pm 0.04$ \\
417 + Match Down    & $1.02 \pm 0.04$ & $0.91 \pm 0.04$ \\
418 + \hline
419 + \end{tabular}
420 + \caption{$\met>100$ GeV: Data/MC scale factors used to account for differences in the
421 +  fraction of events with additional hard jets from radiation in
422 +  \ttll\ events. \label{tab:njetskfactors_met100}}
423 + \end{center}
424 + \end{table}
425 +
426 +
427 + However, we have two pieces of information indicating that the
428 + scale up/scale down variations are inconsistent with the data.
429 + These are described below.
430 +
431 + The first piece of information is that the jet multiplicity in the scale
432 + up/scale down sample is the most inconsistent with the data.  This is shown
433 + in Table~\ref{tab:njetskfactors_met100}, where we tabulate the
434 + $K_3$ and $K_4$ factors of Section~\ref{sec:jetmultiplicity} for
435 + different \ttbar\ MC samples.  The data/MC disagreement in the $N_{jets}$
436 + distribution
437 + for the scale up/scale down samples is also shown in Fig.~\ref{fig:dileptonnjets_scaleup}
438 + and~\ref{fig:dileptonnjets_scaledw}.  This should be compared with the
439 + equivalent $N_{jets}$ plots for the default Powheg MC, see
440 + Fig.~\ref{fig:dileptonnjets}, which agrees much better with data.
441 +
442 + \begin{figure}[hbt]
443 +  \begin{center}
444 +        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/njets_all_met50_mueg_scaleup.pdf}
445 +        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/njets_all_met50_diel_scaleup.pdf}%
446 +        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/njets_all_met50_dimu_scaleup.pdf}
447 +        \caption{
448 +          \label{fig:dileptonnjets_scaleup}%\protect
449 +          SCALE UP: Comparison of the jet multiplicity distribution in data and MC for dilepton events in the \E-\M\
450 +          (top), \E-\E\ (bottom left) and \M-\M\ (bottom right) channels.}  
451 +      \end{center}
452 + \end{figure}
453 +
454 + \begin{figure}[hbt]
455 +  \begin{center}
456 +        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/njets_all_met50_mueg_scaledw.pdf}
457 +        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/njets_all_met50_diel_scaledw.pdf}%
458 +        \includegraphics[width=0.5\linewidth]{plots/njets_all_met50_dimu_scaledw.pdf}
459 +        \caption{
460 +          \label{fig:dileptonnjets_scaledw}%\protect
461 +          SCALE DOWN: Comparison of the jet multiplicity distribution in data and MC for dilepton events in the \E-\M\
462 +          (top), \E-\E\ (bottom left) and \M-\M\ (bottom right) channels.}  
463 +      \end{center}
464 + \end{figure}
465 +
466 +
467 + \clearpage
468 +
469 + The second piece of information is that we have performed closure
470 + tests in CR5 using the alternative MC samples.  These are exactly
471 + the same tests as the one performed in Section~\ref{sec:CR5} on the
472 + Powheg sample.  As we argued previously, this is a very powerful
473 + test of the background calculation.
474 + The results of this test are summarized in Table~\ref{tab:hugecr5yields}.
475 + Concentrating on the relatively high statistics CR5A region, we see
476 + for all \ttbar\ MC samples except scale up/scale down we obtain
477 + closure within 1$\sigma$.  The scale up/scale down tests closes
478 + worse, only within 2$\sigma$.  This again is evidence that the
479 + scale up/scale down variations are in disagreement with the data.
480 +
481 + \input{hugeCR5Table.tex}
482 +
483 + Based on the two observations above, we argue that the MC
484 + scale up/scale down variations are too extreme.  We feel that
485 + a reasonable choice would be to take one-half of the scale up/scale
486 + down variations in our MC.  This factor of 1/2 would then bring
487 + the discrepancy in the closure test of
488 + Table~\ref{tab:hugecr5yields} for the scale up/scale down variations
489 + from about 2$\sigma$ to about 1$\sigma$.
490 +
491 + Then, going back to Table~\ref{tab:fracdiff}, and reducing the scale
492 + up/scale
493 + down variations by a factor 2, we can see that a systematic
494 + uncertainty
495 + of 5\% covers the range of reasonable variations from different MC
496 + models in SRA and SRB.
497 + %The alternative MC models indicate that a 6\% systematic uncertainty
498 + %covers the range of reasonable variations.
499 + Note that this 5\% is also consistent with the level at which we are
500 + able to test the closure of the method with alternative samples in CR5 for the high statistics
501 + regions (Table~\ref{tab:hugecr5yields}).
502 + The range of reasonable variations obtained with the alternative
503 + samples are consistent with the uncertainties assigned for
504 + the \ttll\ background based on the closure of the background
505 + predictions and data in CR4 and CR5.
506 +
507 +
508 +
509 +
510 +
511 + %\begin{table}[!h]
512 + %\begin{center}
513 + %{\footnotesize
514 + %\begin{tabular}{l||c||c|c|c|c|c|c|c}
515 + %\hline
516 + %Sample              & Powheg & Madgraph & Mass Up & Mass Down & Scale
517 + %Up & Scale Down &
518 + %Match Up & Match Down \\
519 + %\hline
520 + %\hline
521 + %SRA     & $579 \pm 10$ & $569 \pm 16$ & $591 \pm 18$ & $610 \pm 22$ & $651 \pm 22$ & $537 \pm 16$ & $578 \pm 18$ & $570 \pm 17$  \\
522 + %\hline
523 + %SRB     & $328 \pm 7$ & $307 \pm 11$ & $329 \pm 13$ & $348 \pm 15$ & $344 \pm 15$ & $287 \pm 10$ & $313 \pm 13$ & $307 \pm 12$  \\
524 + %\hline
525 + %SRC     & $111 \pm 4$ & $99 \pm 5$ & $107 \pm 7$ & $113 \pm 8$ & $124 \pm 8$ & $95 \pm 6$ & $93 \pm 6$ & $106 \pm 6$  \\
526 + %\hline
527 + %SRD     & $39 \pm 2$ & $35 \pm 3$ & $41 \pm 4$ & $41 \pm 5$ & $47 \pm 5$ & $33 \pm 3$ & $31 \pm 3$ & $39 \pm 4$  \\
528 + %\hline
529 + %SRE     & $14 \pm 1$ & $15 \pm 2$ & $17 \pm 3$ & $12 \pm 3$ & $15 \pm 3$ & $13 \pm 2$ & $12 \pm 2$ & $16 \pm 2$  \\
530 + %\hline
531 + %\end{tabular}}
532 + %\caption{ \ttdl\ predictions for alternative MC samples. The uncertainties are statistical only.
533 + %\label{tab:ttdlalt}}
534 + %\end{center}
535 + %\end{table}
536 +
537 +
538 +
539 +
540 + %\begin{table}[!h]
541 + %\begin{center}
542 + %{\footnotesize
543 + %\begin{tabular}{l||c|c|c|c|c|c|c}
544 + %\hline
545 + %$N \sigma$     & Madgraph & Mass Up & Mass Down & Scale Up & Scale Down &
546 + %Match Up & Match Down \\
547 + %\hline
548 + %\hline
549 + %SRA     & $0.38$ & $0.42$ & $1.02$ & $2.34$ & $1.58$ & $0.01$ & $0.33$  \\
550 + %\hline
551 + %SRB     & $1.17$ & $0.07$ & $0.98$ & $0.76$ & $2.29$ & $0.78$ & $1.11$  \\
552 + %\hline
553 + %SRC     & $1.33$ & $0.37$ & $0.26$ & $1.24$ & $1.82$ & $1.97$ & $0.54$  \\
554 + %\hline
555 + %SRD     & $0.82$ & $0.46$ & $0.38$ & $1.32$ & $1.27$ & $1.47$ & $0.00$  \\
556 + %\hline
557 + %SRE     & $0.32$ & $0.75$ & $0.66$ & $0.07$ & $0.66$ & $0.83$ & $0.38$  \\
558 + %\hline
559 + %\end{tabular}}
560 + %\caption{ N $\sigma$ difference in \ttdl\ predictions for alternative MC samples.
561 + %\label{tab:nsig}}
562 + %\end{center}
563 + %\end{table}
564 +
565 +
566 + %\begin{table}[!h]
567 + %\begin{center}
568 + %\begin{tabular}{l||c|c|c|c}
569 + %\hline
570 + %Av. $\Delta$ Evt.     & Alt. Gen. & $\Delta$ Mass & $\Delta$ Scale
571 + %& $\Delta$ Match \\
572 + %\hline
573 + %\hline
574 + %SRA     & $5.0$ ($1\%$) & $9.6$ ($2\%$) & $56.8$ ($10\%$) & $4.4$ ($1\%$)  \\
575 + %\hline
576 + %SRB     & $10.4$ ($3\%$) & $9.6$ ($3\%$) & $28.2$ ($9\%$) & $2.8$ ($1\%$)  \\
577 + %\hline
578 + %SRC     & $5.7$ ($5\%$) & $3.1$ ($3\%$) & $14.5$ ($13\%$) & $6.4$ ($6\%$)  \\
579 + %\hline
580 + %SRD     & $1.9$ ($5\%$) & $0.1$ ($0\%$) & $6.9$ ($18\%$) & $3.6$ ($9\%$)  \\
581 + %\hline
582 + %SRE     & $0.5$ ($3\%$) & $2.3$ ($16\%$) & $1.0$ ($7\%$) & $1.8$ ($12\%$)  \\
583 + %\hline
584 + %\end{tabular}
585 + %\caption{ Av. difference in \ttdl\ events for alternative sample pairs.
586 + %\label{tab:devt}}
587 + %\end{center}
588 + %\end{table}
589 +
590 +
591 +
592   \clearpage
593  
594   %
# Line 290 | Line 730 | This is the uncertainty associated with
730   veto performance is modeled by the Monte Carlo.  This uncertainty
731   only applies to the fraction of dilepton BG events that have
732   a second e/$\mu$ or a one prong $\tau \to h$, with
733 < $P_T > 10$ GeV in $|\eta| < 2.4$.  This fraction is 1/3 (THIS WAS THE
734 < 7 TEV NUMBER, CHECK).  The uncertainty for these events
735 < is XX\% and is obtained from Tag and Probe studies of Section~\ref{sec:trkveto}
733 > $P_T > 10$ GeV in $|\eta| < 2.4$.  This fraction is about 1/3, see
734 > Table~\ref{tab:trueisotrk}.
735 > The uncertainty for these events
736 > is 6\% and is obtained from tag-and-probe studies, see Section~\ref{sec:trkveto}.
737 >
738 > \begin{table}[!h]
739 > \begin{center}
740 > {\footnotesize
741 > \begin{tabular}{l||c|c|c|c|c|c|c}
742 > \hline
743 > Sample              & SRA & SRB & SRC & SRD & SRE & SRF & SRG \\
744 > \hline
745 > \hline
746 > $\mu$ Frac. \ttdl\ with true iso. trk.   & $0.32 \pm 0.03$ & $0.30 \pm 0.03$ & $0.32 \pm 0.06$ & $0.34 \pm 0.10$ & $0.35 \pm 0.16$ & $0.40 \pm 0.24$ & $0.50 \pm 0.32$  \\
747 > \hline
748 > \hline
749 > e Frac. \ttdl\ with true iso. trk.       & $0.32 \pm 0.03$ & $0.31 \pm 0.04$ & $0.33 \pm 0.06$ & $0.38 \pm 0.11$ & $0.38 \pm 0.19$ & $0.60 \pm 0.31$ & $0.61 \pm 0.45$  \\
750 > \hline
751 > \end{tabular}}
752 > \caption{ Fraction of \ttdl\ events with a true isolated track.
753 > \label{tab:trueisotrk}}
754 > \end{center}
755 > \end{table}
756  
757   \subsubsection{Isolated Track Veto: Tag and Probe Studies}
758   \label{sec:trkveto}
759  
300 [EVERYTHING IS 7TEV HERE, UPDATE WITH NEW RESULTS \\
301 ADD TABLE WITH FRACTION OF EVENTS THAT HAVE A TRUE ISOLATED TRACK]
760  
761   In this section we compare the performance of the isolated track veto in data and MC using tag-and-probe studies
762   with samples of Z$\to$ee and Z$\to\mu\mu$. The purpose of these studies is to demonstrate that the efficiency
763   to satisfy the isolated track veto requirements is well-reproduced in the MC, since if this were not the case
764 < we would need to apply a data-to-MC scale factor in order to correctly predict the \ttll\ background. This study
764 > we would need to apply a data-to-MC scale factor in order to correctly
765 > predict the \ttll\ background.
766 >
767 > This study
768   addresses possible data vs. MC discrepancies for the {\bf efficiency} to identify (and reject) events with a
769   second {\bf genuine} lepton (e, $\mu$, or $\tau\to$1-prong). It does not address possible data vs. MC discrepancies
770   in the fake rate for rejecting events without a second genuine lepton; this is handled separately in the top normalization
771   procedure by scaling the \ttlj\ contribution to match the data in the \mt\ peak after applying the isolated track veto.
772 +
773   Furthermore, we test the data and MC
774   isolated track veto efficiencies for electrons and muons since we are using a Z tag-and-probe technique, but we do not
775   directly test the performance for hadronic tracks from $\tau$ decays. The performance for hadronic $\tau$ decay products
# Line 320 | Line 782 | decays are well-understood, we currently
782   Second, hadronic tracks may undergo nuclear interactions and hence their tracks may not be reconstructed.
783   As discussed above, independent studies show that the MC reproduces the hadronic tracking efficiency within 4\%,
784   leading to a total background uncertainty of less than 0.5\% (after taking into account the fraction of the total background
785 < due to hadronic $\tau$ decays with \pt\ $>$ 10 GeV tracks), and we hence regard this effect as neglgigible.
785 > due to hadronic $\tau$ decays with \pt\ $>$ 10 GeV tracks), and we hence regard this effect as negligible.
786  
787 < The tag-and-probe studies are performed in the full 2011 data sample, and compared with the DYJets madgraph sample.
787 > The tag-and-probe studies are performed in the full data sample, and compared with the DYJets madgraph sample.
788   All events must contain a tag-probe pair (details below) with opposite-sign and satisfying the Z mass requirement 76--106 GeV.
789   We compare the distributions of absolute track isolation for probe electrons/muons in data vs. MC. The contributions to
790   this isolation sum are from ambient energy in the event from underlying event, pile-up and jet activitiy, and hence do
# Line 344 | Line 806 | The specific criteria for tags and probe
806  
807        \begin{itemize}
808        \item Electron passes full analysis ID/iso selection
809 <      \item \pt\ $>$ 30 GeV, $|\eta|<2.5$
810 <
349 <      \item Matched to 1 of the 2 electron tag-and-probe triggers
350 <        \begin{itemize}
351 <        \item \verb=HLT_Ele17_CaloIdVT_CaloIsoVT_TrkIdT_TrkIsoVT_SC8_Mass30_v*=
352 <        \item \verb=HLT_Ele17_CaloIdVT_CaloIsoVT_TrkIdT_TrkIsoVT_Ele8_Mass30_v*=
353 <        \end{itemize}
809 >      \item \pt\ $>$ 30 GeV, $|\eta|<2.1$
810 >      \item Matched to the single electron trigger \verb=HLT_Ele27_WP80_v*=
811        \end{itemize}
812  
813      \item{Probe criteria}
# Line 365 | Line 822 | The specific criteria for tags and probe
822        \begin{itemize}
823        \item Muon passes full analysis ID/iso selection
824        \item \pt\ $>$ 30 GeV, $|\eta|<2.1$
825 <      \item Matched to 1 of the 2 electron tag-and-probe triggers
825 >      \item Matched to 1 of the 2 single muon triggers
826          \begin{itemize}
827          \item \verb=HLT_IsoMu30_v*=
828          \item \verb=HLT_IsoMu30_eta2p1_v*=
# Line 382 | Line 839 | The specific criteria for tags and probe
839   The absolute track isolation distributions for passing probes are displayed in Fig.~\ref{fig:tnp}. In general we observe
840   good agreement between data and MC. To be more quantitative, we compare the data vs. MC efficiencies to satisfy
841   absolute track isolation requirements varying from $>$ 1 GeV to $>$ 5 GeV, as summarized in Table~\ref{tab:isotrk}.
842 < In the $\geq$0 and $\geq$1 jet bins where the efficiencies can be tested with statistical precision, the data and MC
843 < efficiencies agree within 7\%, and we apply this as a systematic uncertainty on the isolated track veto efficiency.
842 > In the $\geq 0$ and $\geq 1$ jet bins where the efficiencies can be tested with statistical precision, the data and MC
843 > efficiencies agree within 6\%, and we apply this as a systematic uncertainty on the isolated track veto efficiency.
844   For the higher jet multiplicity bins the statistical precision decreases, but we do not observe any evidence for
845   a data vs. MC discrepancy in the isolated track veto efficiency.
846  
# Line 394 | Line 851 | a data vs. MC discrepancy in the isolate
851  
852   \begin{figure}[hbt]
853    \begin{center}
854 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_0j.pdf}%
855 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_0j.pdf}
856 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_1j.pdf}%
857 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_1j.pdf}
858 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_2j.pdf}%
859 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_2j.pdf}
860 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_3j.pdf}%
861 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_3j.pdf}
862 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_4j.pdf}%
863 <        %\includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_4j.pdf}
854 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_0j.pdf}%
855 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_0j.pdf}
856 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_1j.pdf}%
857 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_1j.pdf}
858 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_2j.pdf}%
859 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_2j.pdf}
860 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_3j.pdf}%
861 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_3j.pdf}
862 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/el_tkiso_4j.pdf}%
863 >        \includegraphics[width=0.3\linewidth]{plots/mu_tkiso_4j.pdf}
864          \caption{
865            \label{fig:tnp} Comparison of the absolute track isolation in data vs. MC for electrons (left) and muons (right)
866   for events with the \njets\ requirement varied from \njets\ $\geq$ 0 to \njets\ $\geq$ 4.
# Line 415 | Line 872 | for events with the \njets\ requirement
872  
873   \begin{table}[!ht]
874   \begin{center}
875 < \caption{\label{tab:isotrk} Comparison of the data vs. MC efficiencies to satisfy the indicated requirements
876 < on the absolute track isolation, and the ratio of these two efficiencies. Results are indicated separately for electrons and muons and for various
877 < jet multiplicity requirements.}
878 < \begin{tabular}{l|l|c|c|c|c|c}
875 > \begin{tabular}{l|c|c|c|c|c}
876 >
877 > %Electrons:
878 > %Selection            : ((((((((((abs(tagAndProbeMass-91)<15)&&(qProbe*qTag<0))&&((eventSelection&1)==1))&&(abs(tag->eta())<2.1))&&(tag->pt()>30.0))&&(HLT_Ele27_WP80_tag > 0))&&(met<30))&&(nbl==0))&&((leptonSelection&8)==8))&&(probe->pt()>30))&&(drprobe<0.05)
879 > %Total MC yields        : 2497277
880 > %Total DATA yields      : 2649453
881 > %Muons:
882 > %Selection            : ((((((((((abs(tagAndProbeMass-91)<15)&&(qProbe*qTag<0))&&((eventSelection&2)==2))&&(abs(tag->eta())<2.1))&&(tag->pt()>30.0))&&(HLT_IsoMu24_tag > 0))&&(met<30))&&(nbl==0))&&((leptonSelection&65536)==65536))&&(probe->pt()>30))&&(drprobe<0.05)
883 > %Total MC yields        : 3749863
884 > %Total DATA yields      : 4210022
885 > %Info in <TCanvas::MakeDefCanvas>:  created default TCanvas with name c1
886 > %Info in <TCanvas::Print>: pdf file plots/nvtx.pdf has been created
887 >
888   \hline
889   \hline
890 < e + $\geq$0 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
890 > e + $\geq$0 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
891   \hline
892 <      data   &  0.088 $\pm$ 0.0003   &  0.030 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.007 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.005 $\pm$ 0.0001  \\
893 <        mc   &  0.087 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.030 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.014 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.008 $\pm$ 0.0000   &  0.005 $\pm$ 0.0000  \\
894 <   data/mc   &     1.01 $\pm$ 0.00   &     0.99 $\pm$ 0.01   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.01   &     0.95 $\pm$ 0.01   &     0.93 $\pm$ 0.01  \\
892 >      data   &  0.098 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.036 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.016 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.006 $\pm$ 0.0000  \\
893 >        mc   &  0.097 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.034 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.016 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.005 $\pm$ 0.0000  \\
894 >   data/mc   &     1.00 $\pm$ 0.00   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.00   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.03 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.02 $\pm$ 0.01  \\
895 >
896   \hline
897   \hline
898 < $\mu$ + $\geq$0 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
898 > $\mu$ + $\geq$0 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
899   \hline
900 <      data   &  0.087 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.031 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.015 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.008 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.005 $\pm$ 0.0001  \\
901 <        mc   &  0.085 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.030 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.014 $\pm$ 0.0000   &  0.008 $\pm$ 0.0000   &  0.005 $\pm$ 0.0000  \\
902 <   data/mc   &     1.02 $\pm$ 0.00   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.00   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.03 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.02 $\pm$ 0.01  \\
900 >      data   &  0.094 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.034 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.016 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0000   &  0.006 $\pm$ 0.0000  \\
901 >        mc   &  0.093 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.033 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.015 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0000   &  0.006 $\pm$ 0.0000  \\
902 >   data/mc   &     1.01 $\pm$ 0.00   &     1.03 $\pm$ 0.00   &     1.03 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.03 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.02 $\pm$ 0.01  \\
903 >
904   \hline
437 \hline
438 e + $\geq$1 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
905   \hline
906 <      data   &  0.099 $\pm$ 0.0008   &  0.038 $\pm$ 0.0005   &  0.019 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.011 $\pm$ 0.0003   &  0.008 $\pm$ 0.0002  \\
441 <        mc   &  0.100 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.038 $\pm$ 0.0003   &  0.019 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.012 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.008 $\pm$ 0.0001  \\
442 <   data/mc   &     0.99 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.00 $\pm$ 0.02   &     0.99 $\pm$ 0.02   &     0.98 $\pm$ 0.03   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.03  \\
906 > e + $\geq$1 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
907   \hline
908 +      data   &  0.110 $\pm$ 0.0005   &  0.044 $\pm$ 0.0003   &  0.022 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.014 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0002  \\
909 +        mc   &  0.110 $\pm$ 0.0005   &  0.042 $\pm$ 0.0003   &  0.021 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0001  \\
910 +   data/mc   &     1.00 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.02   &     1.08 $\pm$ 0.02   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.03  \\
911 +
912   \hline
445 $\mu$ + $\geq$1 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
913   \hline
914 <      data   &  0.100 $\pm$ 0.0006   &  0.041 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.022 $\pm$ 0.0003   &  0.014 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.010 $\pm$ 0.0002  \\
448 <        mc   &  0.099 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.039 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.020 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0001   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0001  \\
449 <   data/mc   &     1.01 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.05 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.05 $\pm$ 0.02   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.02   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.03  \\
914 > $\mu$ + $\geq$1 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
915   \hline
916 +      data   &  0.106 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.043 $\pm$ 0.0003   &  0.023 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.014 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.010 $\pm$ 0.0001  \\
917 +        mc   &  0.106 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.042 $\pm$ 0.0003   &  0.021 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0002   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0001  \\
918 +   data/mc   &     1.00 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.08 $\pm$ 0.02   &     1.07 $\pm$ 0.02  \\
919 +
920   \hline
452 e + $\geq$2 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
921   \hline
922 <      data   &  0.105 $\pm$ 0.0020   &  0.042 $\pm$ 0.0013   &  0.021 $\pm$ 0.0009   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0007   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0006  \\
455 <        mc   &  0.109 $\pm$ 0.0011   &  0.043 $\pm$ 0.0007   &  0.021 $\pm$ 0.0005   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.009 $\pm$ 0.0003  \\
456 <   data/mc   &     0.96 $\pm$ 0.02   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.03   &     1.00 $\pm$ 0.05   &     1.01 $\pm$ 0.06   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.08  \\
922 > e + $\geq$2 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
923   \hline
924 +      data   &  0.117 $\pm$ 0.0012   &  0.050 $\pm$ 0.0008   &  0.026 $\pm$ 0.0006   &  0.017 $\pm$ 0.0005   &  0.012 $\pm$ 0.0004  \\
925 +        mc   &  0.120 $\pm$ 0.0012   &  0.048 $\pm$ 0.0008   &  0.025 $\pm$ 0.0006   &  0.016 $\pm$ 0.0005   &  0.011 $\pm$ 0.0004  \\
926 +   data/mc   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.05 $\pm$ 0.02   &     1.05 $\pm$ 0.03   &     1.07 $\pm$ 0.04   &     1.07 $\pm$ 0.05  \\
927 +
928   \hline
459 $\mu$ + $\geq$2 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
929   \hline
930 <      data   &  0.106 $\pm$ 0.0016   &  0.045 $\pm$ 0.0011   &  0.025 $\pm$ 0.0008   &  0.016 $\pm$ 0.0007   &  0.012 $\pm$ 0.0006  \\
931 <        mc   &  0.108 $\pm$ 0.0009   &  0.044 $\pm$ 0.0006   &  0.024 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.016 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.011 $\pm$ 0.0003  \\
932 <   data/mc   &     0.98 $\pm$ 0.02   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.03   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.04   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.05   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.06  \\
930 > $\mu$ + $\geq$2 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
931 > \hline
932 >      data   &  0.111 $\pm$ 0.0010   &  0.048 $\pm$ 0.0007   &  0.026 $\pm$ 0.0005   &  0.018 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0004  \\
933 >        mc   &  0.115 $\pm$ 0.0010   &  0.048 $\pm$ 0.0006   &  0.025 $\pm$ 0.0005   &  0.016 $\pm$ 0.0004   &  0.012 $\pm$ 0.0003  \\
934 >   data/mc   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.01   &     1.01 $\pm$ 0.02   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.03   &     1.09 $\pm$ 0.04   &     1.09 $\pm$ 0.04  \\
935 >
936   \hline
937   \hline
938 < e + $\geq$3 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
938 > e + $\geq$3 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
939   \hline
940 <      data   &  0.117 $\pm$ 0.0055   &  0.051 $\pm$ 0.0038   &  0.029 $\pm$ 0.0029   &  0.018 $\pm$ 0.0023   &  0.012 $\pm$ 0.0019  \\
941 <        mc   &  0.120 $\pm$ 0.0031   &  0.052 $\pm$ 0.0021   &  0.027 $\pm$ 0.0015   &  0.018 $\pm$ 0.0012   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0011  \\
942 <   data/mc   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.05   &     0.99 $\pm$ 0.08   &     1.10 $\pm$ 0.13   &     1.03 $\pm$ 0.15   &     0.91 $\pm$ 0.16  \\
940 >      data   &  0.123 $\pm$ 0.0031   &  0.058 $\pm$ 0.0022   &  0.034 $\pm$ 0.0017   &  0.023 $\pm$ 0.0014   &  0.017 $\pm$ 0.0012  \\
941 >        mc   &  0.131 $\pm$ 0.0030   &  0.055 $\pm$ 0.0020   &  0.030 $\pm$ 0.0015   &  0.020 $\pm$ 0.0013   &  0.015 $\pm$ 0.0011  \\
942 >   data/mc   &     0.94 $\pm$ 0.03   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.06   &     1.14 $\pm$ 0.08   &     1.16 $\pm$ 0.10   &     1.17 $\pm$ 0.12  \\
943 >
944   \hline
945   \hline
946 < $\mu$ + $\geq$3 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
946 > $\mu$ + $\geq$3 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
947   \hline
948 <      data   &  0.111 $\pm$ 0.0044   &  0.050 $\pm$ 0.0030   &  0.029 $\pm$ 0.0024   &  0.019 $\pm$ 0.0019   &  0.014 $\pm$ 0.0017  \\
949 <        mc   &  0.115 $\pm$ 0.0025   &  0.051 $\pm$ 0.0017   &  0.030 $\pm$ 0.0013   &  0.020 $\pm$ 0.0011   &  0.015 $\pm$ 0.0009  \\
950 <   data/mc   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.04   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.07   &     0.95 $\pm$ 0.09   &     0.97 $\pm$ 0.11   &     0.99 $\pm$ 0.13  \\
948 >      data   &  0.121 $\pm$ 0.0025   &  0.055 $\pm$ 0.0018   &  0.033 $\pm$ 0.0014   &  0.022 $\pm$ 0.0011   &  0.017 $\pm$ 0.0010  \\
949 >        mc   &  0.120 $\pm$ 0.0024   &  0.052 $\pm$ 0.0016   &  0.029 $\pm$ 0.0012   &  0.019 $\pm$ 0.0010   &  0.014 $\pm$ 0.0009  \\
950 >   data/mc   &     1.01 $\pm$ 0.03   &     1.06 $\pm$ 0.05   &     1.14 $\pm$ 0.07   &     1.14 $\pm$ 0.08   &     1.16 $\pm$ 0.10  \\
951 >
952   \hline
953   \hline
954 < e + $\geq$4 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
954 > e + $\geq$4 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
955   \hline
956 <      data   &  0.113 $\pm$ 0.0148   &  0.048 $\pm$ 0.0100   &  0.033 $\pm$ 0.0083   &  0.020 $\pm$ 0.0065   &  0.017 $\pm$ 0.0062  \\
957 <        mc   &  0.146 $\pm$ 0.0092   &  0.064 $\pm$ 0.0064   &  0.034 $\pm$ 0.0048   &  0.024 $\pm$ 0.0040   &  0.021 $\pm$ 0.0037  \\
958 <   data/mc   &     0.78 $\pm$ 0.11   &     0.74 $\pm$ 0.17   &     0.96 $\pm$ 0.28   &     0.82 $\pm$ 0.30   &     0.85 $\pm$ 0.34  \\
956 >      data   &  0.129 $\pm$ 0.0080   &  0.070 $\pm$ 0.0061   &  0.044 $\pm$ 0.0049   &  0.031 $\pm$ 0.0042   &  0.021 $\pm$ 0.0034  \\
957 >        mc   &  0.132 $\pm$ 0.0075   &  0.059 $\pm$ 0.0053   &  0.035 $\pm$ 0.0041   &  0.025 $\pm$ 0.0035   &  0.017 $\pm$ 0.0029  \\
958 >   data/mc   &     0.98 $\pm$ 0.08   &     1.18 $\pm$ 0.15   &     1.26 $\pm$ 0.20   &     1.24 $\pm$ 0.24   &     1.18 $\pm$ 0.28  \\
959 >
960   \hline
961   \hline
962 < $\mu$ + $\geq$4 jets            &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
962 > $\mu$ + $\geq$4 jets   &           $>$ 1 GeV   &           $>$ 2 GeV   &           $>$ 3 GeV   &           $>$ 4 GeV   &           $>$ 5 GeV  \\
963   \hline
964 <      data   &  0.130 $\pm$ 0.0128   &  0.052 $\pm$ 0.0085   &  0.028 $\pm$ 0.0063   &  0.019 $\pm$ 0.0052   &  0.019 $\pm$ 0.0052  \\
965 <        mc   &  0.105 $\pm$ 0.0064   &  0.045 $\pm$ 0.0043   &  0.027 $\pm$ 0.0034   &  0.019 $\pm$ 0.0028   &  0.014 $\pm$ 0.0024  \\
966 <   data/mc   &     1.23 $\pm$ 0.14   &     1.18 $\pm$ 0.22   &     1.03 $\pm$ 0.27   &     1.01 $\pm$ 0.32   &     1.37 $\pm$ 0.45  \\
964 >      data   &  0.136 $\pm$ 0.0067   &  0.064 $\pm$ 0.0048   &  0.041 $\pm$ 0.0039   &  0.029 $\pm$ 0.0033   &  0.024 $\pm$ 0.0030  \\
965 >        mc   &  0.130 $\pm$ 0.0063   &  0.065 $\pm$ 0.0046   &  0.035 $\pm$ 0.0034   &  0.020 $\pm$ 0.0026   &  0.013 $\pm$ 0.0022  \\
966 >   data/mc   &     1.04 $\pm$ 0.07   &     0.99 $\pm$ 0.10   &     1.19 $\pm$ 0.16   &     1.47 $\pm$ 0.25   &     1.81 $\pm$ 0.37  \\
967 >
968   \hline
969   \hline
970  
971   \end{tabular}
972 + \caption{\label{tab:isotrk} Comparison of the data vs. MC efficiencies to satisfy the indicated requirements
973 + on the absolute track isolation, and the ratio of these two efficiencies. Results are indicated separately for electrons and muons and for various
974 + jet multiplicity requirements.}
975   \end{center}
976   \end{table}
977  
978 + \clearpage
979 + \subsection{Summary of uncertainties}
980 + \label{sec:bgunc-bottomline}
981 +
982 + The contribution from each source to the total uncertainty on the background yield is given in Tables~\ref{tab:relativeuncertaintycomponents} and~\ref{tab:uncertaintycomponents} for the relative and absolute uncertainties, respectively. In the low-\met\ regions the dominant uncertainty comes from the top tail-to-peak ratio, $R_{top}$ (Section~\ref{sec:ttp}), while in the high-\met\ regions the \ttll\ systematic uncertainty dominates (Section~\ref{sec:ttdilbkgunc}).
983 +
984 + \input{uncertainties_table.tex}
985 +
986 +
987 +
988  
989  
990   %Figure.~\ref{fig:reliso} compares the relative track isolation
# Line 548 | Line 1037 | jet multiplicity requirements.}
1037   %END SECTION TO WRITE OUT
1038  
1039  
1040 < {\bf fix me: What you have written in the next paragraph does not explain how $\epsilon_{fake}$ is measured.
1041 < Why not measure $\epsilon_{fake}$ in the b-veto region?}
1040 > %{\bf fix me: What you have written in the next paragraph does not
1041 > %explain how $\epsilon_{fake}$ is measured.
1042 > %Why not measure $\epsilon_{fake}$ in the b-veto region?}
1043  
1044   %A measurement of the $\epsilon_{fake}$ in data is non-trivial. However, it is
1045   %possible to correct for differences in the $\epsilon_{fake}$ between data and MC by
# Line 577 | Line 1067 | Why not measure $\epsilon_{fake}$ in the
1067   %      \end{center}
1068   %\end{figure}
1069  
580 \subsection{Summary of uncertainties}
581 \label{sec:bgunc-bottomline}.
1070  
1071 < THIS NEEDS TO BE WRITTEN
1071 >
1072 > % THIS NEEDS TO BE WRITTEN

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